[转载]2016美国数学建模MCM F题（政策）翻译:难民移入政策建模

ICM: The Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling

美国东部时间2016年1月28日星期四20:00（北京时间2016年1月29日上午9:00）后，可以通过竞赛网站查看赛题。（链接：http://www.comap.com/undergraduate/contests/mcm）

PROBLEM F:Modeling Refugee Immigration Policies 

With hundreds of thousands of refugees moving across Europe and more arriving each day, considerable attention has been given to refugee integration policies and practices in many countries and regions. History has shown us that mass fleeing of populations
occur as a result of major political and social unrest and warfare. These crises bring a set of unique challenges that must be managed carefully through effective policies. Events in the Middle East have caused a massive surge of refugees emigrating from the
Middle East into safe haven countries in Europe and parts of Asia, often moving through the Mediterranean and into countries such as Turkey, Hungary, Germany, France, and UK. By the end of October 2015, European countries had received over 715,000 asylum applications
from refugees. Hungary topped the charts with nearly 1,450 applications per 100,000 inhabitants, but with only a small percentage of those requests granted (32% in 2014), leaving close to a thousand refugees homeless per every 100K residents of the country.
Europe has established a quota system where each country has agreed to take in a particular number of refugees, with the majority of the resettlement burden lying with France and Germany.

The refugees travel multiple routes – from the Middle East through (1) West Mediterranean, (2) Central Mediterranean, (3) Eastern Mediterranean, (4) West Balkans, (5) Eastern Borders, and (6) Albania to Greece (See these routes mapped out in http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911). Each route has different levels of safety and accessibility, with the most popular route being Eastern Mediterranean and the most dangerous, Central Mediterranean. Countries that have been burdened the most are concerned about their capacity to provide resources
for the refugees such as food, water, shelter, and healthcare. There are numerous factors that determine how the refugees decide to move through the region. Transportation availability, safety of routes and access to basic needs at destination are considered
by each individual or family in this enormous migration.

The UN has asked your team, the ICM-RUN (RefUgee aNalytics) to help develop a better understanding of the factors involved with facilitating the movement of refugees from their countries of origin into safe-haven countries.

Your Specific Tasks:

1. Metrics of refugee crises. Determine the specific factors which can either enable or inhibit the safe and efficient movement of refugees. There are attributes of the individuals themselves, the routes they must take, the types of transportation, the countries’
capacity, including number of entry points and resources available to refugee population. This first task requires ICM-RUN to develop a set of measures and parameters and justify why they should be included in the analysis of this crisis.

2. Flow of refugees. Create a model of optimal refugee movement that would incorporate projected flows of refugees across the six travel routes mentioned in the problem, with consideration of transportation routes/accessibility, safety of route and countries’
resource capacities. You can include different routes, different entry points, single or multiple entry points, and even different countries. Use the metrics that you established in Task 1 to determine the number of refugees, as well as the rate and point
of entry necessary to accommodate their movement. Be sure to justify

any new elements you have added to the migration and explain the sensitivities of your model to these dynamics.

3. Dynamics of the crisis. Refugee conditions can change rapidly. Refugees seek basic necessities for themselves and their families in the midst of continuously changing political and cultural landscapes. In addition, the capacity to house, protect, and feed
this moving population is dynamic in that the most desired destinations will reach maximum capacity the quickest, creating a cascade effect altering the parameters for the patterns of movement. Identify the environmental factors that change over time; and
show how capacity can be incorporated into the model to account for these dynamic elements. What resources can be prepositioned and how should they be allocated in light of these dynamics? What resources need priority and how do you incorporate resource availability
and flow in your model? Consider the role and resources of both government and non-government agencies (NGOs). How does the inclusion of NGO’s change your model and strategy? Also consider the inclusion of other refugee destinations such as Canada, China,
and the United States. Does your model work for thes
113b0
e regions as well?

4. Policy to support refugee model. Now that you have a working model, ICM-RUN has been asked to attend a policy strategy meeting where your team is asked to write a report on your model and propose a set of policies that will support the optimal set of conditions
ensuring the optimal migration pattern. Your UN commission has asked you to consider and prioritize the health and safety of refugees and of the local populations. You can include as many parameters and considerations as you see fit to help to inform the strategic
policy plan, keeping in mind the laws and cultural constraints of the effected countries. Consider also the role and actions of non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

5. Exogenous events. In addition to endogenous systemic dynamics, exogenous events are also highly likely to occur and alter the situation parameters in these volatile environments, For example, a major terrorist attack in Paris, France has been linked to the
Syrian refuge crisis, and has resulted in substantial shifts in the attitudes and policies of many European countries with respect to refugees. The event has also raised concerns among local populations. For example, Brussels, Belgium was placed in a lockdown
after the Paris raids in attempts to capture possible terrorists.

a) What parameters of the model would likely shift or change completely in a major exogenous event?

b) What would be the cascading effects on the movement of refugees in neighboring countries?

c) How will the immigration policies that you recommend be designed to be resilient to these types of events?

6. Scalability. Using your model, expand the crisis to a larger scale – by a factor of 10. Are there features of your model that are not scalable to larger populations? What parameters in your model change or become irrelevant when the scope of the crisis increases
dramatically? Do new parameters need to be added? How does this increase the time required to resolve refugee placement? If resolution of the refugee integration is significantly prolonged, what new issues might arise in maintaining the health and safety of
the refugee and local populations? What is the threshold of time where these new considerations are in play? For example, what policies need to be in place to manage issues such as disease control, childbirth, and education?

The Report: The UN Commission on Refugees has asked your ICM-RUN team to provide them a 20-page report that considers the factors given in your tasks. Each team should also write a 1 page policy recommendation letter which will be read by the UN Secretary General
and the Chief of Migration.

Your ICM submission should consist of a 1 page Summary Sheet, a 1 page letter to the UN, and your solution (not to exceed 20 pages) for a maximum of 22 pages. Note: The appendix and references do not count toward the 22 page limit.

The Commission has also provided you with some on-line references that may be helpful:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911 http://www.iom.int/ http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90854 http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c4d6.html http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/world/migrants-refugees-europe-syria.html?_r=0 http://www.who.int/features/qa/88/en/ http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/migration-and-health/migrant-health-in-the-european-region/migration-and-health-key-issues https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/refugees-displaced-persons
.

E题:难民移入政策建模

每天成千上万，甚至更多的难民穿越并到达欧洲，很多国家和地区，对于难民问题的关注已经融入政策和实践。历史已经证明，大规模人群逃离会造成重大政治、社会动荡和战争。这些危机带来的一系列挑战，必须通过有效的政策小心应对。中东事件造成大规模的难民移民从中东到欧洲和亚洲部分地区的安全国家，他们通常穿越地中海进入土耳其、匈牙利、德国、法国和英国等国。到2015年10月底，欧洲国家已经收到超过715000份难民庇护申请。匈牙利每10万名定居者中，有将近1450份之多的申请，但其中只有一小部分请求通过（2014年32%)，大约每100
K居住者中，有近一千难民无家可归。欧洲已经建立了一个配额制度，每个国家只收容特定数量的难民，法国和德国承担了大部分。

难民迁移有多种路线—从中东开始，通过(1)地中海西部（2）地中海中部(3)地中海东部,(4)巴尔干半岛西部（5）东部边界(6)阿尔巴尼亚到希腊(迁移图见http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911)。每个路径都有不同安全和可进入级别，最受欢迎的路线是地中海东部，最危险的是地中海中部。对相关国家造成的最大负担就是他们为难民提供资源的能力，如食物、水、避难所和医疗。有很多因素决定难民的迁移方式，交通有效性、路线安全性和在目的地基本需求得到满足，是个人或家庭在这次大规模迁移中考虑的因素。

联合国要求你的团队ICM-RUN（难民分析）帮助建立一个，在促进难民从原籍国到安全避难国家移动方面，更好地理解所涉及各项因素的模型。

 

你们的任务是

1.衡量难民危机。确定可以实现或抑制难民安全、高效流动的因素，包括个人本身的特性，他们必须采用的路线，交通类型，国家能力（包括难民入境点的数量和难民可用的资源）。第一个任务要求ICM-RUN设计一组标准和参数，并证明为何它们应该包含在危机分析中。

2.难民流动。最优难民迁移模型，包含问题中提到六个迁移路线的流程，需考虑运交通路线/可利用性、路线安全和国家资源能力。你可以包括不同路线、不同入境点、单个或多个入境点,甚至不同的国家。使用任务1中建立的衡量指标，确定难民的数量、以及适应他们移动所需的入境速度和地点。一定要证明添加到迁移中的任何新元素，解释这些动力学模型的灵敏度。

3.危机动态分析。难民情况可以迅速改变。难民在不断变化的政治和文化背景中，为自己和家庭寻求基本必需品。此外，为移动人口提供住宿、保护和食物的能力是动态的，因为最理想的目的地达到最大容量也最快，产生级联效应，促使改变运动模式的参数。确定随时间变化的环境因素，展示能力如何纳入模型，解释这些动态元素。什么资源可以预先部署以及他们如何根据动态变化分配？哪种资源需优先考虑？如何把资源可用性和流动性整合到你的模型中？考虑政府和非政府机构的角色和资源（非政府组织）。如何将非政府组织的变化纳入你的模型和策略？还要考虑其他难民目的地的加入，如加拿大、中国和美国。你的模型依旧适用于这些地区吗？

4.支持难民模型的政策。由于你有一个工作模型，ICM-RUN被要求参加一个政策战略会议，要求你的团队根据模型撰写报告，并提出一系列的政策，支持确保最优迁移模式的最优条件。联合国委员会已经要求你优先考虑的难民和当地居民的健康和安全，你可以按自己想法，包括尽可能多的参数和考量，帮助报告政策计划，谨记受影响国家的法律、文化约束，也考虑非政府组织角色和行为。

   5.外部事件。除了内生系统动态、外源性事件也极有可能发生，改变不稳定环境中的情况参数，例如，巴黎一次重大的恐怖袭击，法国已经卷入叙利亚难民危机，导致许多欧洲国家对难民态度和政策的变化。事件也在当地居民间引发关注，例如，巴黎袭击后，为捕获可能的恐怖分子，比利时布鲁塞尔进入戒严期。

a)在外生事件中，模型的什么参数可能会改变或完全改变？

b)邻国的什么因素会对难民移动产生级联效应？

c)你推荐的移民政策将如何设计来适应这类事件？

6.可扩展性。使用你的模型扩展到更大规模- 10倍规模。你的模型有不适应更大规模人口的特征吗？模型中哪些参数在危机范围急剧扩大时，发生变化或成为无关紧要的参数？需要添加新的参数吗？这如何提高解决难民安置所需的时间？如果解决难民收容问题明显拖延，那么在保证难民和当地居民的健康和安全方面，什么样的新问题可能出现？新的因素起作用的时间阈值是什么？例如，需要采取什么样的政策处理问题，如疾病控制、生育和教育？

 

报告：联合国难民委员会已经要求ICM-RUN团队提供一份20页的报告，考虑任务中给出的因素。每个团队也应该写1页政策建议信，由联合国秘书长和难民专员参阅。

ICM应提交1页汇总表，1页给联合国的信，你的解决方案（不超过20页）最多22页。注意:附录和参考文献不计入22页里。

委员会提供以下网上可供参考的资料

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911

http://www.iom.int/ http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/90854 http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49c3646c4d6.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/world/migrants-refugees-europe-syria.html?_r=0 http://www.who.int/features/qa/88/en/

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/migration-and-health/migrant-health-in- the-european-region/migration-and-health-key-issues

https://www.icrc.org/en/war-and-law/protected-persons/refugees-displaced-persons

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