未来互联网几大趋势之预测（下）

未来互联网几大趋势之预测（下）
 
文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)

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四，Web2.0的生死结

 

毫无疑问，2008年对Web2.0来说也将会是一个非常重要的生死结，如今Web2.0几乎只剩下博客和视频尚能维持生存，其他的一概半生不死。在资金上，大多Web2.0网站将很快烧完钱而无后续资金支持；而另一方面，这批网站同样等不到盈利模式成熟之日。

 

2008年，Web2.0网站依然会遭受大洗牌，但部分网站会生存下来,例如近来获得2500万美金风险投资的优酷。相比博客，艾瑞总裁杨伟庆曾明确表示在未来视频的市场前景会非常广阔，而博客仍然前景堪忧；同时优酷总裁古永锵也表示09年优酷的收入将会过亿。如此看来，2008年部分视频网站或许会有突飞猛进的发展，加上08年有奥运会这一契机以及视频用户的增加和市场的成熟，诸如优酷，Ku6等领军视频网站将会迎来视频网站的春天。而对其他视频网站以及Web2.0网站，即便有10个奥运会其也将无所作为。

 

五，搜狐能否在奥运会中大获全胜

 

2008年是奥运之年，对搜狐来说也是一个很特别的年份，比较搜狐是唯一的互联网赞助商。但之前新浪，网易以及腾讯已经结成联盟以对抗搜狐的优势。至于门户们在奥运会中究竟能获得多少广告收益，我们仍然拭目以待。

 

但奥运会毕竟是一个不可多得的机会，无论如何，门户们会铆足了劲儿往上面狠狠的咬上一口。问题是这对搜狐来说是超越新浪的一个绝好机会，搜狐拥有奥运合作者的独特身份似乎能直捣黄龙。但这并不代表搜狐胜券在握，之前包括世界杯在内的一系列体育赛事中，搜狐重金拿下内容却意外的败给了新浪。这次搜狐是重蹈覆辙还是扭转乾坤，我们仍然拭目以待。

 

六，门户能否“东山再起”

 

说是“东山再起”或许有些沉重，因为这个门户并不是指三大门户，而是指门户模式。11月底，Tom在线退出门户。早在Tom退出门户之前，老三大门户中的网易早已经从门户中抽身出来，实现了到游戏的成功转型。

 

对门户的讨论一直没有休止过，当初三大门户登陆纳斯达克的时候，门户的模式就遭受过质疑。后来就是网易转型做短信和游戏，其盈利能力一度超过新浪和搜狐，加之盛大，百度和阿里巴巴等迅速崛起和Tom的退却，门户过时的言论变越来越猛烈。然而，腾讯却还在加紧布局门户，而网易也言门户的重要性，我认为不是门户不重要了，而是门户的角色正在变化，门户正逐渐转变为聚拢人气和资源的重要手段，而单纯靠门户赚广告的模式已经没有那么大吸引力了。

 

The prediction of several trends of
Internet in the future

 

The destiny of
Web2.0

 

It is so sure that 2008 will
be one significant opportunity for some Web2.0 sites. It can
determine the destiny of Web2.0. Up to now, there are just blog and
video websites can maintain their lives. First, most have been
dead. In capital, most web2.0 websites can’t obtain the subsequent
money. Second, most can’t catch up with the day when the
profitable mode become ripe.

 

In 2008, many web2.0 websites
will encounter “Life and Death Plunder”. Some will survive. For
example Youku, the website got another 2500 dollars as venture
capital. Comparing with blog, Weiqing Yang, the CEO of Iresearch
expressed his opionion. He consider that in the future, video will
have wide market. But the future of blog is still pale. The CEO of
Youku confessed that Youku will have a large scale of income. Maybe
it will be as large as hundreds of million. So, some video website
will gain great progress. And with the rise of users and the expand
of the market, some leading websites will meet the spring of video.
For others, even if 10 Olympic games can’t save their
lives.

 

Whether Sohu can be successful
in Olympic

 

2008 will be one year of
Olympic. It is so special for Sohu because of the exclusives
Internet Cooperator. But long ago, Sina, NetEase and Tecent have
made an alliance to withstand the superiority of Sohu. How much
profit the portals can get? We will look forward.

 

Olympic is one chance which
will be hard to come by. Under any circumstances, the portals will
bite the cake with full energy. The problem is that it is one good
chance for sohu to exceed sina. But it can’t guarantee the
victory. Sohu have failed during the former competition. So whether
Sohu can establish one legend? We will look forward.

 

Whether the portals can
“stage a comeback”

 

It is so serious that we call
it “stage a comeback”. The portal doesn’t mean the three
portals, but the mode. In the end of November, Tom withdraw from
the competition of portals. Before that, NetEase, which is consider
one of the three oldest portals, has withdraw
from  the competition. Now, it has realize the
transform from portal to game.

 

It is controversial to discuss
the mode of portal. After the oldest three portals getted listed in
NASDQ, the mode of portal is so disputable. Then NetEase had one
successful transition. SMS and game become the main business, the
profitable ability exceeded sohu and sina for a long time. Then
Shanda, Baidu and Alibaba grew up quickly. The expression_r of
outdated portal is so violent. However, tecent is arranging the
layout of portal. So I think it should not be the importance of
portal is decreasing, but the mode has changed. It is not so
attractive to gain profit by advertisement.

 

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第一期八卦文章推荐：多少柔情多少泪？--------记我的大学四年

 
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