未来互联网几大趋势之预测（上）

未来互联网几大趋势之预测（上）

 

文/王易见(欢迎翻译和约稿等合作)

QQ 543415188 

 

2007年年末将至，回顾2007年互联网界仍有很多令人难忘的闪光记忆，那么走完2007年，进入2008年互联网将会有哪些发展趋势会呈现出来呢？这里我们在盘点2007年互联网大事记时不妨做一一预测。

 

一， 百度股价能否继续坚挺

 

去年的百度是麻烦重重，祸不单行，先后有裁员门，点击欺诈门和导航门。然而2007年的百度却是顺风顺水，股价一举突破400美元大关，虽然后来股价呈现了一定的疲软之势，但其股价在中国概念股中仍然是一枝独秀。

 

当然，百度股价的飙升和其出色的业绩不无关系。但互联网始终是机遇和挑战并存的，百度在股价上遥遥领先，它也必须为这种领先付出更多的代价。于是后来有了百度世界大会高调提出的新媒体口号，又有百度进军C2C的战略目标，再到后来是在马云赴港圈钱的同时李彦宏赴港圈人。

 

2008年的百度股价是否一如07年这么坚挺？这个问题的答案取决于其产品的拓展和人才资源的长期储备，以及战略的执行情况。百度至今仍靠搜索为看家本领，国际化和多元化目前都只迈出了万里长征的第一步。未来变数还是太多，不过作为值得中国人骄傲的一家公司，我们还是希望百度能“更上一层楼”。

 

二，电子商务2.0

 

阿里巴巴的上市让我们对电子商务充满了无限遐想，一个网络交易平台居然能有如此高的价值属性存在。而当阿里巴巴上市热潮过后，我们不得不静下心来想想未来电子商务还有那些发展空间和模式？

 

在若干年前，我们只能在商场购买所需的商品，那是是当面的讨价还价，虽然能亲眼看到商品甚至可能和老板砍下部分价钱，但我们还是感受到了这种交易模式的不便性------受时间和空间约束太大。后来出现了阿里巴巴，阿里巴巴让商品的买卖能通过互联网平台得以实施，它第一次打破了商品交易对时间和空间的依赖，并创造了一个前所未有的电子商务世界。

 

但阿里巴巴的交易对象仅适用于物质商品的交易，未来的交易对象和模式却还有足够空间进行深度与广度的挖掘。近来有一些威客网站将智力，人脉作为交易对象，这是其广度挖掘典型的表现形式。

 

由此我们可以得知，未来的电子商务将变得更为智能和人性化，你不仅可以在网上买家用电器，服饰等，还可以卖智力，卖人脉。智力和人脉是人们日常生活必不可少的两项需求，只要有需求就会有市场。

 

所以，我们不妨将阿里巴巴时代的电子商务成为电子商务1.0，那么虚拟商品的电子商务将成为电子商务2.0，当然，电子商务2.0并不一定和1.0相冲突，但毫无疑问，它将是一个很有发展前景的全新领域。

 

三，行业网站的魔咒

 

07年关于行业网站的发展问题引来了越来越多人的讨论，一是随着互联网的高速发展，行业网站如同雨后春笋般萌发于互联网的沃土中，但大多发展缓慢，半死不活；二是网盛科技的上市给众多举步维艰的行业网站注入了一记强心针。二者互为矛盾，相互制约，大大增加了行业网站这一命题的难度。

 

《互联网周刊》一期文章认为行业网站的盈利模式是很透明的，建站+会员+广告的盈利模式清晰而稳健，但行业网站却很少引来VC的驻足，这不能不说是一大遗憾。而2007年6月在杭州举行了一次行业网站风险投资大会，这次可能是迄今为止唯一一次将行业网站和风投拉在一起的峰会。另外，年中国行业网站年会暨百强峰会也将于2007年8月16日在京举行。关于行业网站的峰会越来越多，也越来越吸引投资者的关注。

 

但慧聪国际CEO郭凡生似乎很不看好行业网站，曾用了“趴在窗户上的苍蝇”来形容行业网站的前途未卜；同时亦有小道消息称阿里巴巴会发力于行业B2B业务，这对行业网站来说亦是一个巨大的威胁。

 

行业网站的前途也并非郭凡生想象的那么悲观，但可以预见的是未来整个行业网站的电子商务大战会越来越激烈。对于行业网站，或许线上加线下的模式可以保住一线生机。

 

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The
prediction of several trends of Internet in the
future

The Year 2007 will end. If we retrospect the
year of 2007, we can find so many flash points which are so
unforgettable. However, we can’t restrict the progress of year
2007, we just can look forward to year 2008. Are there any trends
we can predict? Now, let’s make an inventory year 2007 and look
forward to year 2008.

 

Whether the share price of Baidu can
persist or not

 

Last year, Baidu encountered so many
embarrassments, for example the issue of “staff firing”, the
issue of “click cheating” and the issue of “navigation”.
However, in 2007, Baidu is so lucky. The share price has break
through the level of 400dollars. Although the share price presented
flexible status, it is still the top one during so many stocks
which have gone public in NASDAQ.

 

Of course, it cares much about the
outstanding profitable ability. But the opportunity goes with the
challenge. Baidu has kept ahead in share price so it should pay
more cost for that. Can you still remember “Baidu World
Convention”? Baidu has publicize the watchword of “New Media”.
Then Baidu set the strategy of C2C progression. Then while Jack Ma
went to HongKong to assemble money, Robbin Li went there to
assemble talents.

 

But in 2008, the share price can be as
outstanding as year of 2007? The answer lays on the expansion the
product line and the restore of human resources and the execution
of strategy. Baidu based mainly on Search Engine.
Internationalization and multi ways are just on the first step of
long march. There will be so many variable complications. But Baidu
is one company which can make Chinese feel honored. So we hope
Baidu can be better and better.

 

E-business 2.0

 

In the future, we just can purchase the
goods in the shop. We can kill the price with the boss and look
over the goods, but the mode is so inconvenience. It is so terrible
because of time and space restriction. Then Alibaba
raised.  Alibaba made it available that the
internet platform can be helpful and useful for the bargaining. It
broke the restriction of time and space at first time. It created
the wholly new world for E-business.

 

But the goods are mainly substance. In the
future, the business mode and business goods should be more
progressive in depth and width. Recently, there are some website
which we called “Wit Key” has put intelligence and relationship
as the goods. This is one example of width development.

From that we can get some conclusions. In
the future the E-business will be more intellective and human. Not
only you can purchase Electric instruments and clothes, but also
intelligence and relationship.

 

Intelligence and relationship is necessary
for every people in our daily life. It can form one large market in
the future.

 

So the time of Alibaba is E-business 1.0.
The time of dummy goods is E-business 2.0. Of course, they won’t
conflict with each other. But it can be surely
promising.

 

The problem of “industry
websites”

 

In 2007, the development of industry
websites has called for more and more discussion. First is that as
the development of internet. More and more industry website come
into being. But most are half life and developing slowly. Second is
that NetSun has gone public. It encouraged almost all industry
websites. The two diathesis are contradictory. So the problem of
industry websites is much more difficult.

 

One article of “Internet Weekly” take
consideration that the profitable mode of industry websites are so
clear. Website construction and leaguer and advertisement are clear
and steady. But VC pay little attention to that. What a pity. But
since the summit of industry websites and venture capital in June
2007, more and more industry websites have been taken notice of.
There will be more and more meeting about that. They have obtained
more and more attention of VC.

 

But Fanshen Guo, the CEO of HC360 doesn’t
think that industry websites are promising. He have described them
as “the fly on the glass”. We also get some information that
Alibaba will set force on B2B of industries, which is great
threaten for industry websites.

 

But I don’t think the industry websites
are unpromising. But we can foresee that the competition will be
fiercer in the future. The combination of on line and off line
maybe can feasible.

 

 

欢迎到这里来为我投票，谢谢，我的作品是《一个IT人在上海》，点此进入

 

第一期八卦文章推荐：多少柔情多少泪？--------记我的大学四年

 
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